Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
